ci-estimate

''COUNTERINTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE''

--not the same as Intelligence Estimate--

We have to conduct a counter intelligence study of the area of operations, so as to ascertain details about the enemy ,the existing situation , the military geography, weather, characteristics of the local population from the perspective of the enemy- that is to say who are the sympathizers, corroborators of the enemy, where and how the enemy intelligence operates, how it conducts sabotage - terrorist- subversive and counter intelligence and counter reconnaissance activities. We must estimate the effects of Enemy counter intelligence and intelligence activities on our mission, operations ,capabilities and all steps that are undertaken to attain mission success. Details about the enemy must include[ in counterintelligence context] location and disposition, composition, strength which should include local abettors and sympathizers, replacements and to what extent they are available, how much efficient are the enemy organizations that conduct intelligence, sabotage, subversive and terrorist activities. We must take into account all what the enemy counter intelligence services know about our intelligence and counter intelligence efforts. Historical, recent and present intelligence, sabotage, terrorist and subversive activities of the enemy should be maintained in database form which can be queried whenever required especially during mission formulation and counterintelligence planning. Those activities which are highly significant must be highlighted and all movements of the enemy during the conduct of such operations must also be recorded. We must know in detail the peculiarities and weaknesses of the enemy counter intelligence service and we must be fully aware of the operational tactical and Technical capabilities of the enemy as well as the type of equipment used by the enemy. All other factors must be recorded in fact sheets which must be attached to the estimate or recorded as annex.

After determination of the above we must now analyze the intelligence , counterintelligence ,sabotage , subversive and terrorist capabilities of the enemy.

1.. Maintain separate enemy capability data sheets, capabilities ranging from intelligence , subversive sabotage, terrorist and those that adversely affect our assigned missions and operations.

2. Every enemy capability datasheet must contain information about what the enemy can do with that capability, how, where, when, in what strength the enemy can carry out its operation. The data sheet should contain information about the time the enemy can devote given the constraints due to our/friendly military security , force protection and intelligence/ counter intelligence operations.. The time when the enemy intends to start its activities should also be entered in the datasheet.

3. This counter intelligence estimate is made by thinking like the enemy and hence we consider all courses of action that can be undertaken by the enemy. Keeping these courses of action in perspective we analyze each capability of the enemy. During this analysis we consider all the factors in para 1, that is all the intelligence we gathered about the enemy counter Intelligence service, existing situation, all the estimated effects on the enemy counter intelligence service and Intelligence Service by the weather and the terrain and also the effect on our intelligence and counter intelligence operations and capabilities/measures, its strength, disposition ,table of organization and equipment ,local affiliations..

4. With all the above information we now attempt to forecast the probable time of the most probable course of action of the enemy. In other words we try to determine the estimate of the probability of occurrence of the most likely enemy counterintelligence activity.

5. Every capability must be seen in the light of factors that will act as enablers or that will go against its adoption.

6. A capability must be seen in the light of its associated strength and vulnerabilities.

7. There should be a detailed discussion in the capability data sheet about all indicators that point towards adoption of that capability by the enemy.

8. The data sheet should contain information exactly how that capability will affect our mission accomplishment—how that capability will be put to use, its role in the course of action of the enemy.

The capabilities of the enemy should be categorized as intelligence capabilities , subversion capabilities , terrorist capabilities and sabotage capabilities. All known and estimated methods of operation should be recorded. Regarding sabotage capability all three that is military , political and economic sabotage should be taken into consideration. Both agent and guerilla types of sabotage should be considered. Subversion capabilities should include propaganda, sedition, treason, disaffection and terrorist activities should also include information on enemy cooperation that will help in the evasion or escape of hostile locals. Regarding terrorist capability we must have all data about the terrorist organization capabilities in the area of operations and also the capabilities of the main personalities of the organization.

We must utilize all our intelligence and counter intelligence resources to get information of all the centre of gravity of Enemy counter intelligence services, command and control , table of organization and equipment, areas of vulnerability and criticality of the enemy counterintelligence apparatus and whether or not this vulnerability can be exploited and to what extent or do we have to neutralize them. We must create a list in which from the beginning till the end we put down the enemy courses of action from the most likely to the least likely corresponding to each capability, and the most dangerous course of action singled out after considering all the possible courses of action. Finally we must put down all information that will indicate in an estimated from the effects that this course of action will have on our assigned mission or in other words we can say the estimated effects of the capability that the enemy will put to use to execute that most likely course of action to defeat our mission.

The final part of the counter intelligence estimate will now dwell on an analysis of our counter intelligence measures to be adopted against these estimated enemy courses of action and whether there is any need of additional requirements or emphasis.

Keshav Mazumdar

Antiterrorism Officer