''COUNTERINTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE''
is
--not the same as Intelligence Estimate--
We have to conduct a counter intelligence study of the area of operations, so as to ascertain details about the enemy ,the existing situation , the military geography, weather, characteristics of the local population from the perspective of the enemy- that is to say who are the sympathizers, corroborators of the enemy, where and how the enemy intelligence operates, how it conducts sabotage - terrorist- subversive and counter intelligence and counter reconnaissance activities. We must estimate the effects of Enemy counter intelligence and intelligence activities on our mission, operations ,capabilities and all steps that are undertaken to attain mission success. Details about the enemy must include[ in counterintelligence context] location and disposition, composition, strength which should include local abettors and sympathizers, replacements and to what extent they are available, how much efficient are the enemy organizations that conduct intelligence, sabotage, subversive and terrorist activities. We must take into account all what the enemy counter intelligence services know about our intelligence and counter intelligence efforts. Historical, recent and present intelligence, sabotage, terrorist and subversive activities of the enemy should be maintained in database form which can be queried whenever required especially during mission formulation and counterintelligence planning. Those activities which are highly significant must be highlighted and all movements of the enemy during the conduct of such operations must also be recorded. We must know in detail the peculiarities and weaknesses of the enemy counter intelligence service and we must be fully aware of the operational tactical and Technical capabilities of the enemy as well as the type of equipment used by the enemy. All other factors must be recorded in fact sheets which must be attached to the estimate or recorded as annex.
After determination of the above we must now analyze the intelligence , counterintelligence ,sabotage , subversive and terrorist capabilities of the enemy.
1.. Maintain separate enemy capability data sheets, capabilities ranging from intelligence , subversive sabotage, terrorist and those that adversely affect our assigned missions and operations.
2. Every enemy capability datasheet must contain information about what the enemy can do with that capability, how, where, when, in what strength the enemy can carry out its operation. The data sheet should contain information about the time the enemy can devote given the constraints due to our/friendly military security , force protection and intelligence/ counter intelligence operations.. The time when the enemy intends to start its activities should also be entered in the datasheet.
3. This counter intelligence estimate is made by thinking like the enemy and hence we consider all courses of action that can be undertaken by the enemy. Keeping these courses of action in perspective we analyze each capability of the enemy. During this analysis we consider all the factors in para 1, that is all the intelligence we gathered about the enemy counter Intelligence service, existing situation, all the estimated effects on the enemy counter intelligence service and Intelligence Service by the weather and the terrain and also the effect on our intelligence and counter intelligence operations and capabilities/measures, its strength, disposition ,table of organization and equipment ,local affiliations..
4. With all the above information we now attempt to forecast the probable time of the most probable course of action of the enemy. In other words we try to determine the estimate of the probability of occurrence of the most likely enemy counterintelligence activity.
5. Every capability must be seen in the light of factors that will act as enablers or that will go against its adoption.
6. A capability must be seen in the light of its associated strength and vulnerabilities.
7. There should be a detailed discussion in the capability data sheet about all indicators that point towards adoption of that capability by the enemy.
8. The data sheet should contain information exactly how that capability will affect our mission accomplishment—how that capability will be put to use, its role in the course of action of the enemy.
The capabilities of the enemy should be categorized as intelligence capabilities , subversion capabilities , terrorist capabilities and sabotage capabilities. All known and estimated methods of operation should be recorded. Regarding sabotage capability all three that is military , political and economic sabotage should be taken into consideration. Both agent and guerilla types of sabotage should be considered. Subversion capabilities should include propaganda, sedition, treason, disaffection and terrorist activities should also include information on enemy cooperation that will help in the evasion or escape of hostile locals. Regarding terrorist capability we must have all data about the terrorist organization capabilities in the area of operations and also the capabilities of the main personalities of the organization.
We must utilize all our intelligence and counter intelligence resources to get information of all the centre of gravity of Enemy counter intelligence services, command and control , table of organization and equipment, areas of vulnerability and criticality of the enemy counterintelligence apparatus and whether or not this vulnerability can be exploited and to what extent or do we have to neutralize them. We must create a list in which from the beginning till the end we put down the enemy courses of action from the most likely to the least likely corresponding to each capability, and the most dangerous course of action singled out after considering all the possible courses of action. Finally we must put down all information that will indicate in an estimated from the effects that this course of action will have on our assigned mission or in other words we can say the estimated effects of the capability that the enemy will put to use to execute that most likely course of action to defeat our mission.
The final part of the counter intelligence estimate will now dwell on an analysis of our counter intelligence measures to be adopted against these estimated enemy courses of action and whether there is any need of additional requirements or emphasis.
Keshav Mazumdar
Antiterrorism Officer
HUMINT is collected information which we term positive intelligence after processing.HUMINT collectors access human sources and multimedia to gain information about enemy intent,composition,disposition,capabilities,table of order and equipment, command control nodes, centers of gravity,leadership,personnel—this is also called Order of Battle when conducted prior to a combat situation. The Commander specifies his intelligence requirements explicitly and going by these requirements , prioritized , human sources,informants,and other human elements possessing information compatible with the said requirements are utilized by application of specific techniques like tactical questioning,debriefing,document exploitation, eliciting and interrogation and reconnaissance and surveillance. The HUMINT collectors are not intelligence operatives with general intelligence education and training but specialists.
Counterintelligence is also a collection oriented discipline like HUMINT but not an intelligence discipline in the strictest sense. It is concerned with enemy intent while HUMINT is concerned with collection part only so as to satisfy Commanders intelligence requirements in order to answer certain information gaps.CI attempts to prevent sabotage,assassination,terrorism,subversive and enemy intelligence activities , deny the enemy access to installations and sensitive information , acts as a protective shield for the Commander by supporting OPSEC and force protection and acts in an advisory capacity recommending countermeasures to enemy intelligence activities.CI is a protection component in the Commanders repository of defensive tactics and techniques and CI also protects the intelligence cycle. Several definitions exclude personnel, physical, document or communications security programs from CI purview , but on close inspection it will be seen that CI invariably is resorted to while implementing force protection and denial/deception measures (information warfare) thus bringing in play the security aspects of personnel , physical,documents.CI support tio physical security , infrastructure, technology protection, military security,HUMINT –all these some way or the other involve those elements that are kept out of general definitions.
Definitions can be very confusing, may render doctrine imperfect and lead to redundancy. For example the Army ten ds to maintain a general perspective on threat—statements like our forces are prepared to deter /attack/defend against a wide spectrum of threats, ranging from criminal activity in our jurisdiction which may abet our main enemy, terrorism , subversion to small wars, wars and battles. Now this generalized concept is fine in that we can have several security programs, each tending to one specific threat type in the entire spectrum. But the disadvantage in this approach is we cannot focus on the main threat, say terrorism, and as security concepts like force protection, deception operations, physical security, military security,etc all have certain elements in common we land up with redundant programs designed to handle these security concerns. For example antiterrorism and force protection both have in common physical security as a passive defensive subcomponent where the installation critical points are protected after vulnerability assessments and red teaming. The same subcomponent is the major component in a physical security program. Thus there occurs good redundancy if we do not have a focused view of the threat and counter threat measures become diffused over the broad spectrum.
The same goes with the definition of intelligence and CI. Or rather I should say the general perspectives held by most Commanders and even intelligence officers.
The main idea is to remove uncertainty and gain a decision advantage. This should be the prime objective of the Commander.HUMINT and CI are both shaping operations but with a critical difference.HUMINT shapes the Commanders view of the battle space by providing him accurate intelligence about enemy order of battle. Plus other information requirements when ops are in progress.CI on the other hand penetrates the enemy commanders decision cycle and shapes his views ‘’like the way’’ our Commander desires by denying the enemy commander access to our operations, plans and information systems , and using offensive methods like penetration , infiltration and also denial/deception operations. Both shaping operations have one thing in common as goal. To act as force enabler. To heighten the Commanders situational understanding. In other words to gain that ‘’decisive ‘’ advantage. .To get a ‘’positional’’ advantage. HUMINT shapes the "Blue" forces' understanding of the "Red" forces while CI affects the Red forces' knowledge of Blue forces.
HUMINT shapes the understanding of the ‘’Blue forces’’ with respect to the ‘’Red forces’’ while CI does the reverse. True both use several techniques which are in common like interrogation and other low level source operations but going by what has been discussed CI is not HUMINT and not in the least a subset of HUMINT. Being a subset would mean CI operations would be counter-HUMINT only. But CI looks beyond that, by conducting offensive operations, denial and deception operations , exploiting enemy intelligence activities ,neutralizing them through collection of evidence and subsequent prosecution for national security crimes, and supporting tactical and theater operations by feeding inputs to the decision cycles. Thus we see CI goes far beyond Counter-HUMINT operations.
Interrelationship
CI also provides positive intelligence about the enemy as a byproduct of its operations.CI and HUMINT operations overlap in that very similar techniques are often used. In fact in tactical operations a mix of HUMINT and CI operators plus a linguist carry out tactical HUMINT operations where the roles of both are more overlapping and confusion arises when either may operate like the other. We should not always justify HUMINT source operations..this leads to the mistaken impression that CI only lends support to HUMINT and has no other function and that HUNMINT and CI are the same thing.NO.Whereas HUMINT focuses on the enemy’s organization,composition,capabilities and decision making without any focus on the intent of collection , only collecting all require information laid down in the commanders prioritized intelligence requirements order , and reporting it through proper channels (and here full stop) CI will go much further , exploiting , neutralizing the enemy intelligence activities or doing both…CI is concerned with enemy ‘’INTENT’’.HUMINT focuses on the enemy’s decision making cycle to gain information for the Commander whereas CI attempts to ‘’INFLUENCE’’ that decision cycle and shape it the way we want it in order to achieve winning objectives. Thus the HUMINT operative tasking end after detecting and identifying enemy intelligence activities while the CI agents tasks begin afresh.
From all this discussion we can derive two things.
2.As HUMINT and CI have many similar lines of operation , if both can be combined to satisfy tactical requirements ,(during theater or national-level requirements they can revert to individual role-this capability must be retained) , we will have an intelligence operator who will be more versatile,adaptable.and can confirm easily to all army requirements at the tactical level. Tactical intelligence formations can execute this tactical HUMINT asset (the operator) to satisfy commanders requirements. Merging the capabilities of HUMINT and CI results in a task organization of skills for the Commander—definitely an improvement over either HUMINT or CI enabled operations. Tactical HUMINT operations are most suitable for developing and maintaining an excellent informant/source base that provides timely, specific and accurate information. Tactical HUMINT operations combine both HUMINT and CI techniques and together with linguist assistance , are more capable of developing and maintaining contacts than only HUMINT or CI ops.For example , the Tactical HUMINT team comes across few individuals of interest near the forward area , the HUMINT operators conduct tactical questioning to extract information of intelligence value and then pass them over to their CI colleagues for further interrogation if they discern any information of interest to the CI operators. This can be switched to and fro and the application of the combined faculties of both results in more refined, relevant and timely/accurate information. If the individuals are of the witting type or have voluntarily offered to deliver information or are community members sympathetic to the forces, then they can be inducted into the source repository by establishing rapport/giving incentives etc and then later their assistance taken for more information. Tactical HUMINT teams can act as mobile interrogation teams at forward areas, quickly disposing off sources after tactical questioning and interrogations, thereafter detailing escort for those who may render more information or who, it appears are suppressing tactical information, sending them to detention centers and collocated interrogation areas near forward areas or in the rear. The standard procedure of detaining and escorting to rear interrogation areas is hereby bypassed as in this procedure , the time taken to assess , detain , segregate , and transport to rear areas can negate the availability of timely intelligence—intelligence is highly perishable ,. Especially combat intelligence, where time is of essence.
Hence as the repository of sources grows, the quality and content of available information is enhanced and for the commander tactical intelligence, most of the time, is at his fingertips. Compare this to the situation where earlier, HUMINT or CI operations had to be complemented by intelligence from theater or national agencies, and it so happens they cannot provide real time, ground intelligence always for combatant commanders.
The soldiers will be given language training, Basic CI training, operational debriefing training so that as and when required they can shift from tactical to operational briefing to CI functions. The focus of training should be cultivating the capability to conduct contact and informant operations, recognize information of CI value, and execute tactical questioning of civilians, and screen EPWs and detainees with the assistance of an interpreter.
Tactical HUMINT team functions:
Here it should be stressed that intelligence nowadays is tactical—the focus should be at tactical level as soldiers fight wars nowadays more than battles. Small-wars in fact. Hence the dire need for actionable intelligence/tactical intelligence. Here the players are combatant commanders who must move swiftly in their maneuver and strike decisively. Higher echelons are there for planning, average intelligence support, but it is for the ground based Tactical HUMINT teams to do most of the work. And they do it—as their composition is quite what the modern day warfare demands.
CI/HUMINT
Counterintelligence functional services are provided to promote the Commanders situational understanding.
Conduct CI support to HUMINT activities
Identify, exploit and counteract foreign intelligence activities across the full spectrum of HUMINT activities. CI activities include, but are not limited to, identifying friendly and hostile capabilities and vulnerabilities; providing CI review of HUMINT activities; conducting CIdamage assessments; providing support to Counter Espionage (CE) investigations; conducting and/or assisting in asset validation by physical and technical means.
Perform CI/HUMINT operational planning.
CI/HUMINT Collection management
The CI/HUMINT officer/JCO will match the requirements with the collection assets in hand , checks availability , usage by other adjacent units , deployable possibilities etc and then determines the best collection plan.
Docex
The CI/HUMINT officer/Jco must be acquainted with the exploitation setup and the units exploitation SOP so that he may, after receiving, accounting and sending the captured materials he may be able to follow-up for results and give future feed inputs to the exploitation cell/agency.
Identify orders of battle in given Area of operations
Identify Ground military attack and defense capability, Air-defense and attack capability, naval capability and all associated military weaponry systems and equipment, such as ground combat systems, antiaircraft systems, naval vessels, etc.Study the enemy infrastructure and locate/identify the keys areas.
Intelligence support to Targeting.
This includes identifying enemy targets , both high value and high payoff , nominating in order of priority , recommending kinetic or non kinetic attacks, and thus assist the Commander to destroy, neutralize or exploit the target in a manner which is in line with the units mission and in keeping with the Commander and his staffs requirements.
The Unit intelligence supervisor who controls the target intelligence collection and associated ops/recommendations to the Commander must be as thorough as possible, evaluating all factors and intelligence inputs carefully, studying imagery data and compiling and organizing target information efficiently so that while nominating to the Commander and making recommendations there is absolutely no ambiguity. Target descriptions including composition, location, importance, imagery, graphics, construction—all of these are spelled out correctly and particularly for HVTs/HPTs their location, significance, all associations determined and influence with respect to the leaderships decision cycle/battle space situation.
Identify:
Evaluate the Threat
Determine threat intent, capabilities, vulnerabilities, possible courses of action and the most dangerous course of action.
It is of prime importance to study enemy activity and indicators to assess his capability to attack, defend, withdraw, reinforce. Focus on the intelligence gaps and this focus can determine the direction of collection of intelligence. Enemy activity patterns should be studied.
Factors influencing the intelligence product are the time available for collection, assets available, unit size, the intelligence requirements, AO features and the mission. The enemy, terrain, weather, local populace are taken into consideration. Identify:
(Close operations are operations that are within the commander's area of operation (AO) in his battle space . Most operations that are projected in close areas are usually against hostile forces in immediate contact and are often the decisive actions. It requires speed and mobility to rapidly concentrate overwhelming combat power at the critical time and place and exploit success. Dominated by fire support, the combined elements of the ground and air elements conduct maneuver warfare to enhance the effects of their fires and their ability to maneuver. As they maneuver to gain positions of advantage over the enemy, combined arms forces deliver fires to disrupt the enemy’s ability to interfere with that maneuver.)
SECTION B is the CLIC.Colocated with the Company. (One intelligence analyst and five enlisted infantrymen.)
Each company of the Bn should select and train at least 6 personnel.
The formation of this platoon will facilitate initial and sustainment training by ensuring consistency throughout the battalion and eliminating additional training requirements for the companies. It will also ensure standardization in processes and reporting formats, and further promote lateral communication among the CLICs. Armed with the BLIP the Commander now has his own organic intelligence unit which will provide him additional support apart from the intelligence feeds as a result of his request for information from higher ups.Moreover and more important the BLIPs of all the companies in the Bnb conduct lateral communication , exchanging combat intelligence and other information, thus keeping abreast of latest developments and enemy tactics which the other company is confronting and the tactics, techniques and procedures employed by the company with an element of success. With the passage of time the initial training given to say the enlisted soldiers or the intelligence specialist helps in sustainment training ,the training a byproduct of the operations the soldier is involved with without resorting to tutored training. Soon the BLIP transforms itself into a robust intelligence unit of the Bn,
Company Level Intelligence Cells
Coming
to the CLIC level we have an organic capability to acquire combat
intelligence directloy at the ground level. Actionable intelligence is
needed desperately by our fighting forces but the time delay from
sensor to shooter(sensors on receipt of request for information collect
the data matching given coordinates, pass it on to the intelligence
section for interpretation who in turn sends it to his higher up for
evaluation and dissemination to the ground unit; in case of map/imagery
obtained by aerial surveillance the time delay is much more) is often
so much that despite accurate target nomination the operation slips out
of hand. With the CLIC at his disposal the commander now can obtain,
analyse and act on readily available combat intelligence without having
to wait for intelligence feeds.C2, intelligence and operations are
hereby synchronized and integration achieved successfully. That too at
the lowest level. The CLIC is supervised by the company commander. The
two sections of CLIC , collection and analysis and production are
looked after by the officer in charge , usually a JCO and there will be
two soldiers , one from each section to function as intelligence watch
and are assigned to the company combat ops center.
Functions/responsibilities:
CLIC
If required, the CLICs now have
the capacity to surge intelligence trained soldiers to support
operations such as cordon and searches and raids.
After an area of
operations is identified inhabited by an asymmetric enemy in a complex
terrain with weak transportation and logistical infrastructure. We need
to deploy an interim combat team complete with HUMINT/, CI/. SIGINT
assets which will act as an early combat team, mounted infantry
organization with the capability to rapidly assess the environment,
physical terrain, community, cultural and political and conduct an
intelligence preparation of the battlefield by assessing the enemy’s
strength, capabilities, disposition, TOE thus enabling the striking
force to project itself before deployment. The primary intent here is
to develop a situational understanding of an unknown area inhabited by
an enemy against the backdrop of distributed, asymmetric, nonlinear
simultaneous operations. Here the problem is to determine the OB of an
enemy that doesn’t have a conventional standing force nor is easily
identifiable. We don’t see any typical military structure, units, rear
and forward areas or logistical networks characteristic of conventional
enemy forces. It is a big question how to deploy ISR assets for
collecting intelligence or conducting reconnaissance or for that matter
determining the center of gravity of the enemy.
LRS units provide reliable HUMINT against second echelon and
PROJECTING COMBAT POWER WITH ORGANIC ISR CAPABILITY
Reason for creation of interim team:
Without
sending in the interim combat team to gain a situational understanding
it is totally impracticable to deploy the striking forces. What we need
is a interim combat force with reconnaissance, surveillance and target
nomination
The
recce platoon, in addition to reconnaissance and surveillance should
also engage in HUMINT activities for thorough situational
understanding. The situation in asymmetric warfare is different. Here
the recce platoon can conduct HUMINT operations. The reconnaissance
platoon should be equipped with CI capability. This heightens its
HUMNINT collection ability.
The HUMINT teams (4 teams) are in effect Tactical HUMINT Teams each with 3 HUMINTcollectors
and one CI agent. Once deployed, the teams report their information to
an operational management team (OMT), which collates intelligence data
gathered by the tactical teams. The information is then passed on to
the brigade INT section for further analysis and integration into the
brigade's collection plan.
C2:
The
reconnaissance platoon HQ and the HUMINT platoon HQ both should contain
one CI NCO.The reconnaissance squads each should have one CI soldier.
Thus at the lowest tactical level organic CI capability with the
deployment of maximum possible CI soldiers is hereby achieved thus
increasing significantly the reconnaissance troops HUMINT collection
capability. We can optimally have in the recce patrol 3
HUMINT OR MI BN IDEA
INTERIM COMBAT TEAM WITH ORGANIC INT AND R&S CAPABILITY – TO PROJECT FORWARD OF AO
Operations Battalion
Collection Management Section
Production Section ASPD & OB Teams
BDA & TGT Team
CI Team
Single Source Teams.
MASINT Team
SIGINT Team
HUMINT Team
IMINT Team
Corps Military Intelligence Support Element
Intelligence Support Elements
HUMINT Collection Operations
Combating terrorism support
Rear operations support
Information operations support
Civil disturbance support
Local operational data collection
Debriefing and interrogation
HUMINT threat assessment
Reconnaissance HUMINT Missions
Elicit information from the local populace.
Interrogate EPWs and Detainees.
Debrief Allies and U.S. personnel.
Document exploitation.
Threat vulnerability assessments.
Source screening operations.